UAE's Gas Deal in Syria: A Strategic Win for the West (2025)

Is the UAE's Gas Venture in Syria a Triple Triumph for Washington? Dive into the High-Stakes Game of Middle East Energy Diplomacy!

Imagine a bold chess move in the heart of the Middle East, where the United States and the United Kingdom are doubling down on their hard-won strategic edge—courtesy of sidelining Russia's key ally, Bashar al-Assad, back in December. This isn't just any region; Syria forms an essential thread in the complex tapestry of Middle Eastern politics, economics, religion, and security. It's also a vital gateway connecting northward to Europe via its extensive coastline along the Mediterranean Sea and southward to Africa. For a deeper dive into these dynamics and the evolving global oil landscape, check out my latest book on the new global oil market order (https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B0C2RRNWNY). To keep Syria firmly in the Western orbit, the plan is straightforward yet ambitious: pump up its economy through investments and hands-on support from Western businesses. The spotlight? Revitalizing Syria's traditional revenue pillars—namely, its gas and oil exports. And here's the clever twist: these projects legally permit the deployment of 'security' teams at the sites receiving the investments, plus any other resources companies deem necessary to protect their operations.

But here's where it gets controversial... Washington and London have taken lessons from past missteps in Iraq and Libya, where prolonged Western involvement sparked accusations of neo-colonialism or even modern crusades among local populations. This time, they're pivoting to a smarter playbook: partner with Arab nations eager to collaborate alongside the West to dodge those objections. Enter the United Arab Emirates (UAE), whose flagship company, Dana Gas, recently inked a preliminary agreement with Syria's state oil firm to explore reviving the country's natural gas fields.

And this is the part most people miss— these fields, less battered by the civil war compared to oil sites, were once the backbone of Syria's economy. Before the conflict erupted, Syria pumped out roughly 316 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) of dry natural gas—a unit measuring daily gas flow, to put it simply for beginners—from proven reserves totaling 8.5 trillion cubic feet (tcf), which indicates the volume of gas known to be recoverable. Russia, eyeing Syria's rich oil reserves and that crucial Mediterranean access, had already built a strong foothold before the 2011 civil war. For instance, their company Stroytransgaz started developing Syria's South-Central Gas Area in 2009, ramping up production by about 40% by 2011. This boom helped Syria's combined gas and oil exports fuel a quarter of government income, positioning it as the top energy producer in the eastern Mediterranean.

After Russia's heavy military backing of al-Assad, they sealed a 2015 Cooperation Plan to rebuild at least 40 energy facilities, starting with gas but extending to offshore oil. The agreement also included overhauling key power plants like those in Aleppo, Deir Ezzor, Mharda, and Tishreen, plus restoring the main grid control center in Damascus. From the West's viewpoint, Russia has essentially footed the bill for much of this infrastructure, setting the stage for further expansion.

The oil side mirrors this progress. The 2015 plan covered upgrading the Homs refinery (with Banias being the other one), aiming for capacities of 140,000 barrels per day (bpd)—a measure of daily oil production—in Phase 1, 240,000 in Phase 2, and 360,000 in Phase 3. Russia even envisioned refining Iranian oil via Iraq for export to southern Europe. Pre-war, Syria was churning out around 400,000 bpd from 2.5 billion barrels of proven reserves, though that dipped from a peak near 600,000 bpd due to outdated recovery methods. Europe snapped up over $3 billion in Syrian oil annually until 2011, with refineries tuned to Syria's mostly heavy, sour 'Souedie' crude, supplemented by sweeter, lighter 'Syrian Light.' Roughly 150,000 bpd flowed to major buyers like Germany, Italy, and France through ports at Banias, Tartus, or Latakia. Meanwhile, global players like the UK's Shell, Petrofac, and Gulfsands Petroleum; France's then-Total; China's National Petroleum Corporation; India's Oil and Natural Gas Corp; Canada's Suncor Energy; and Russia's Tatneft and Stroytransgaz were all active in Syria's energy scene.

With this setup largely intact—and financed by Moscow—it's no surprise that U.S. President Donald Trump lifted sanctions on Syria's gas and oil sectors on May 13. The UK and the EU-27 had already followed suit. Trump announced this in Riyadh, emphasizing the need to engage other Middle Eastern players in Syria's future to avoid past pitfalls. Saudi Arabia sees a stable Syria as a boon, enabling its own ventures and energy exports through the country to Europe. The UAE, alongside Saudi Arabia, is a cornerstone of Trump's vision for involving key Arab partners in Syria and his broader regional strategy. This means forging interconnected economic ties that evolve into political alliances, centered on the U.S. and its allies—much like the Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between several Arab states and Israel during his first term. Again, my book delves into this in detail (https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B0C2RRNWNY). From the Western perspective, Dana Gas (https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/How-the-UAE-Has-Helped-Western-Oil-and-Gas-Majors-Return-to-Iraq.html) is the ideal player, having led gas revival efforts in other Western targets like Egypt and Iraq. In Iraq, they've thrived in the volatile Kurdistan region, recently launching gas sales from the Khor Mor expansion project.

But let's stir the pot—what if this 'win' for the West comes at a cost locals view as another form of foreign dominance? Ultimately, these initiatives position the U.S. and allies at the core of Syria's economic rebirth, influencing its future policies. They also integrate major Arab nations into reviving a historically pivotal state in politics, economy, religion, and geography, paving the way for more Abraham Accord-style agreements. And crucially, they block Russia from reaping these benefits— a zero-sum victory in geopolitics and energy strategy.

What do you think? Is this a masterful stroke of diplomacy, or does it echo the occupation-like interventions of the past? Could involving Arab states genuinely change the narrative, or is it just window dressing? Share your opinions below—let's debate!

By Simon Watkins for Oilprice.com