In the ever-shifting landscape of global politics, the question of whether the United States should continue to lead the liberal world order is a topic of intense debate. This article delves into the complexities of this issue, offering a nuanced perspective on the benefits and challenges of American global leadership. By examining the past, present, and potential future, we explore why the U.S.-led order is worth preserving and how it can be reformed to better serve the interests of all nations.
The Legacy of American Leadership
The U.S.-led international system, established after World War II, has been a cornerstone of global stability and prosperity. It has underpinned the most secure and prosperous 80-year period in history, thanks to the commitment of every U.S. president before Donald Trump. This order has provided public goods, open sea lanes, a stable financial system, collective security, and support for frameworks to resolve disputes. It has also fostered the greatest expansion of individual freedom and democracy the world has ever seen.
However, the liberal international order has not been without its flaws. As Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney acknowledged, the notion of a rules-based order was always partially false, with the world's strongest powers exempting themselves when convenient. Yet, the U.S.-led order has also been partially true, providing stability and prosperity for much of the world.
The Risks of a World Without American Leadership
Critics of the U.S.-led order argue that it has been an unsustainable drain on American resources. They point to the rising costs of defense spending and the perceived lack of results. However, the U.S. remains a global economic and military powerhouse, with a defense budget more than three times that of China. Its energy production is at a record high, and its technology companies dominate global markets.
The biggest risk in a world without a strong United States committed to allies, rules, and norms would be a lower cost of aggression and a higher risk of major conflict. The invasion of Ukraine by Russia in 2022 is a stark reminder of the dangers of territorial aggression. Without the U.S. commitment to deterrence, other ambitious or insecure states might seek to take advantage of a weakened American military.
Reforming the U.S.-Led Order
Instead of abandoning the U.S.-led order, the next president should seek to reform it. This involves proposing a new bargain with allies, addressing legitimate concerns about the old alliance system. Greater burden sharing from allies is essential to deal with growing threats and make alliances politically sustainable in Washington. The G-7 could be expanded to include partners like Australia and South Korea, with a mandate to address national security-related export controls and economic coercion.
A renewed U.S. alliance system must also reflect the most likely global challenges of the second quarter of the twenty-first century, including great-power competition with China and Russia, and the emergence of artificial general intelligence. The U.S. should demonstrate respect for the rules, norms, and institutions that Trump is destroying, and address global economic imbalances and inequities that contributed to the fading support for the old order.
The Way Forward
Americans are tired of the burdens of global leadership, but the U.S.-led order is not dead yet. The next president should remind Americans of its value, acknowledge its shortcomings, and offer a new vision for American leadership. By reforming the order, the U.S. can continue to play a vital role in preserving global peace, prosperity, and security. The future of the world order depends on the choices made by the American people and their leaders.
